An Expert’s Guide to Thursday Night Soccer Betting, Week 16

0
Credit:

Getty Images. Pictured: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle, Titans WR Julio Jones and QB Ryan Tannehill (left to right)

  • NFL odds for the 49ers against the Titans evolved in the final hours before kick-off, pushing San Francisco 3 to 3.5 points from a favorite.
  • The over / under has also fallen from 44.5 to 46 points since our expert wrote the following guide to betting on football on Thursday night.
  • His recommended choice, however, is actually more valuable now with the odds movement.
49ers odds -3.5
Titans odds +3.5
More less 46
Time 8:20 p.m. ET
TV SCS
Odds via DraftKings. Be up to date NFL odds here.

After a wave of uncertainties due to COVID-19 outbreaks in the league and some unexpected football additions on Tuesday night, Week 16 is finally upon us. The San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans have the honor to kick things off on Thursday Night Football. Read on to see my best predictions and play for the game.


Click on the arrow to expand injury reports

49ers vs. Titans injury report

49ers Injuries

  • LB Dr. Greenlaw (groin): Outside
  • S Talanoa Hufanga (knee): Outside
  • DL Maurice Hurst (calf): Outside
  • RB Elijah Mitchell (knee): Outside
  • LB Azeez Al-Shaair (elbow): Questionable

Titans Wounds

  • T Taylor Lewan (rear): Outside
  • LB David Long Jr. (hamstrings): Outside
  • DL Larrell Murchison (knee): Outside
  • G Rodger Saffold III (shoulder / illness): Outside

49ers vs. Titans game

49ers offense Rank DVOA Defense of the Titans
4 Total 13
4 Past 15
4 To rush 17
Defense of the 49ers Rank DVOA Attack on titans
9 Total 24
21 Past 26
2 To rush 17
The Football Outsiders DVOA measures effectiveness by comparing a team’s success in each game to the league average based on the situation and the opponent.

Titans ready to bounce

The Titans are coming off a 19-13 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15. Pittsburgh was my favorite bet going up to last week, in part because the (then) Titans 9-4 were an overrated team. According to my expected wins model, Tennessee had played closer to a 7-6 team and enjoyed a ton of luck in one-scoring games (4-1 record). But, as expected, the regression hit the Titans hard last week – they missed a few inches on a fourth and 6 that would have set up the first and opening goal for a possible touchdown.

49ers Pass D could cost them dearly

The 49ers put on an admirable performance in their 31-13 victory over the Atlanta Falcons, but the Titans could well have their number this week. Tennessee are set to bring AJ Brown and Julio Jones back to the roster for the first time since Week 9. Timing couldn’t be better for the Titans given the 49ers’ defense against the run (second in DVOA). , but beatable through the air (21st in DVOA).


NFL pick: 49ers vs. Titans

I’ll bet the Titans to bounce back in Week 16 as it’s a little miracle they almost managed to beat the Steelers despite a -4 turnover margin in the game.

Despite 63% of the action on the 49ers at the time of writing (check real-time public betting data here), the line has been put from +3.5 to +3 on all books. It’s clear sharps have been all over the Titans at +3.5 – I think it makes sense to buy the extra half point, especially given the value of that number.

Take: Titans +3.5 | Bet on: -140

Editor’s Note (6:30 p.m. ET): The Titans are now at +3.5 in the market, which means there is no need to buy the half point anymore. Find the best line in real time here.

More 49ers-Titans Odds, Picks & Trends

How would you rate this article?


Source link

Share.

Comments are closed.