Countries scramble to fill Black Sea grain gap – AgFax


Wall Street Journal writers Jesse Newman and Patrick Thomas reported on the front page of today’s newspaper that, “From India to Ireland, governments act to fill a void of the Black Sea region which could total tens of millions of tons of grain. They are pay farmers to sow more crops and mobilize additional wagons and containers to move the wheat.

“Trading giants such as Bunge Ltd. and Archer Daniels Midland Co. are exploring alternative routes take the crops out of Ukrainewhere the key port of Odessa is offline and fighting has turned fields into battlefieldscast uncertainty on the ability of farmers plant and reap their crops. Meanwhile, companies like ADM, Bayer AG and Cargill Inc. continue to operate in Russia for the time being.

“In the short termit will be hard for the rest of the world’s farmers take overgiven that Russia and Ukraine combined typically account for more than a quarter of world wheat exports.

“Since the start of the war, the United States Department of Agriculture has cut its forecast for world wheat trade for the current season by more than 6 million tons, or 3%, while forecasts for the fall in Russian and Ukrainian exports exceeds increases expected elsewhere.

Today’s article explained that “if hostilities continue into the summer, agricultural executives and economists say, crop shortfalls keep prices highjeopardizing food security in places like the Middle East and North Africa, where soaring food prices have contributed to political instability over the past decades.

“World food prices I have already reached recordsand prices could still jump 22% as the war in Ukraine leads to supply shortages, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

“It’s not about the lack of grain in the world, it’s about the price people will have to pay,” said Joseph Glauber, former USDA chief economist and senior fellow at the International Food Policy Research. Institute.

Newman and Thomas added that “in recent years, Ukrainian sowing of its six main crops covered 59 million acresroughly the size of the area planted in Illinois, Indiana and Iowathree of the largest agricultural states in the United States, according to Scott Irwinagricultural economist at the University of Illinois.

“Russiathe world’s largest exporter of wheat, ships four times the grain grown in Kansastypically the top wheat-producing state in the United States, Irwin said.

American farmers shouldn’t provide much buffer. The current wheat harvest in the northern hemisphere was planted last falland must be harvested this summer. The drought has wreaked havoc on the winter wheat crop in the United States, according to the USDA.

American agriculture in times of drought. USDA-Office of the Chief Economist (April 28, 2022). Click on the image to enlarge

In related news, Reuters writers Neha Arora and Mayank Bhardwaj reported yesterday that “India’s wheat production expected to fall in 2022 after five consecutive years of record harvests, sharp and sudden increase in temperature in mid-march reduce crop yields in the world’s second largest grain producer.

“The fall could to curb Indian exports of the staple. Taking advantage of a rise in world wheat prices after Russia invaded Ukraine, India exported a record 7.85 million tonnes in the fiscal year ending March – up to 275% of the previous year. »

The article stated that, “In mid-February, nearly a month before the recent heatwave, the government declared India to be on track to harvest an all-time high. 111.32 million tonnes of cereals, up on the previous year 109.59 million tons

“The government has yet to officially revise its production estimates, but an official memo, seen by Reuters, said production could fall to 105 million tons this year.

Meanwhile, Reuters writer Pavel Polityuk reported yesterday that “Ukraine has officially closed its four Black and Azov seaportscaptured by Russian forces, Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry said on Monday.

And Reuters writer Michael Hogan reported yesterday that “Russian attacks on Ukrainian grain infrastructure look like attempts to reduce competition in Russia’s export marketsGerman Agriculture Minister Cem Oezdemir said Monday.

The Reuters article noted that “” targeted Russian attacks on grain silos, fertilizer stores, agricultural areas and infrastructureOezdemir told Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland, a cooperative network of German regional newspapers.

And a separate article from Reuters today by Panarat Thepgumpanat reported that, “Thailand’s cabinet on Tuesday approved new measures to boost animal feed imports for a period of three months to relieve a shortage following the disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a government spokesman told a press briefing.

As well, Stephen Nakrosis, Dow Jones Writer reported yesterday that “Ken Seitz, President and Acting Chief Executive Officer of Nutrien Ltd., said on Monday that the global agriculture and agricultural input markets” are being affected by a number of unprecedented supply disruptions who have contributed to higher commodity prices and growing concerns for global food security.’”

The Dow Jones article added that “potash supplies are impacted by punishments placed on Russia and Belarus, two nations that account for about 40% of global potash production and exports, Nutrien management said.

” This lead to reduction within the direction’s projected range of global potash shipments between 60 million and 65 million tons in 2022.

Sanctions have also led to a tightening of global nitrogen supplies due to reduced availability from Russia. The offer is also impacted by China’s restrictions on urea exports, according to management.


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