Russian war amplifies agricultural market dynamics in India, Ukraine, US and Indonesia – AgFax



Reuters editors Rajendra Jadhav and Mayank Bhardwaj reported today that, “But a rare confluence of high international awards, consecutive record harvests, weaker rupee against the dollar and improved internal logistics made [wheat] attractive India expeditions.

“‘It is a golden opportunity for India to export its surplus,” said Nitin Gupta, Vice President of Food and Agribusiness Olam Agro India.

“For international wheat marketsIndia sales help gap a supply shortfall resulting from disruptions caused by Ukraine in the Black Sea region, cuts Canada and declines in quality Australia.”

The Reuters article pointed out that “following a flurry of export deals signed in February and March, India’s wheat shipments hit a record 7.85 million tonnes in the fiscal year ending March – up to 275% of the previous year.

“Exports could increase to 12 million tonnes in the 2022-23 financial year, traders said, making it a serious player in world markets.”

And earlier this week, Bloomberg writers Pratik Parija and Bibhudatta Pradhan reported that “India will increase subsidies on fertilizers, including potash and di-ammonium phosphate, to protect farmers from rising soil nutrient prices.”

However, Associated Press writer Aniruddha Ghosal today reported that, “An unusually early, India’s record heat wave reduced wheat yieldsraise questions on how the country is doing balance its domestic needs with the ambition to increase exports and make up for deficits due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The AP article explained that “even though this is the first second biggest wheat producer, India exports only a small part of its harvest. It was looking to capitalize on the global disruption of wheat supplies caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine and finding new markets for its wheat in Europe, Africa and Asia.

it looks uncertain given the delicate balance the government must maintain between demand and supply. It needs about 25 million tons (27.5 million US tons) of wheat for the vast food welfare program that typically feeds more than 80 million people.

New York Times writers Hari Kumar and Mike Ives reported yesterday that “extreme heat poses a problem for Agriculture, the main source of income for hundreds of millions of people across the subcontinent. In India, wheat farmers been saying for weeks that high temperatures adversely affected their yields.”


Alistair MacDonald reported in today’s Wall Street Journal that “Russian forces to have Ukrainian fields riddled with mines and destroyed equipment in areas they once occupied, in what returning farmers and the Kyiv government claim is a campaign by Moscow to hamper the country’s agricultural industry.”

The extent of damage to some farms, along with port disruptions and fertilizer shortages, show how the war’s impact on Ukraine’s agricultural industry could linger well into next year.

“The Ukrainian government estimates that mines are present in approximately 30% of agricultural fields around kyiv previously occupied by the Russians,” the Journal article said.

Meanwhile, Reuters writer Pavel Polityuk reported this week that “Russia launched two missile strikes and damaged a strategic bridge in Ukraine’s Odessa region, state railways and local officials said on Wednesday, an event that could affect Ukraine’s plans to developing exports via the Danube ports.”

“Ukrainian agriculture and transport officials said the country seeks to increase export capacity of Danube river ports which allow the transport of cereals via the Danube to the Romanian ports of the Black Sea.”

And Reuters writer Natalia Zinets reported yesterday that “Ukraine on Thursday accused Russia of stealing grain from the territory it occupiesan act which she said increased the threat to global food security posed by disruptions to spring planting and the blocking of Ukrainian ports during the war.

United States

Reuters editors Leah Douglas and Pj Huffstutter reported yesterday that “the Biden administration is asking Congress to approve $500 million for the agricultural sectorin order to wooing US wheat farmers for a double crop their fields and increase federal government spending to short term loan farmers who grow certain food crops.

“The request is part of President Joe Biden’s broader $33 billion request Thursday to lawmakers to support Ukraine, a dramatic escalation in US funding for the war with Russia.”

The Reuters article noted that “demand includes approximately $100 million to pay an incentive of $10 per acre to farmers – paid by crop insurance premiums — for a soybean crop planted after a winter wheat crop in 2023, the official said.

Ryan December reported in today’s Wall Street Journal that, “The soy pricewhich are fed to cows, chicken and salmon and ground into oils, gained 26% so far this year. Futures are trading above $17 a bushel for the first time since a hot, dry summer that ravaged US farms and ruined crops in 2012. Until recently, that drought of a decade ago was the only time corn cost more than $8 a bushel. Corn futures up 37% this yeartraded up to $8.24 Thursday, approximately 15 cents less than the historic record.”

Bloomberg writers Kim Chipman and Megan Durisin reported yesterday that “Soybean oil hits all-time high price again while corn approached a decade as the war in Ukraine chokes off the world’s grain and vegetable oil supply.


Yesterday too, Bloomberg writer Eko Listiyorini reported that “Indonesia, which ships about a third of the world’s cargoes of edible oilsjust imposed a total ban on palm oil exports protect its internal market at a time runaway global inflation – a die most dramatic examples of food protectionism in recent history.

Reuters editor Bernadette Christina reported today that “The [Indonesian] policy changes have sent shockwaves through global edible oil marketswho were also on edge after the war in Ukraine, took over much of the edible oil supply.

“Indonesian officials have pledged to lift the export ban once bulk cooking oil prices return to Rs 14,000 per litre, although some see a risk the policy will be undermined by hoarding if international prices continue to rise.”

A Reuters article yesterday by Bernadette Christina and Fransiska Nangoy reported that “Indonesia should be able to cope with its shortage of cooking oil in the coming weeks and lifting a ban on exporting on palm oil and its refined products in Mayan industry body said Thursday, a day after a last-minute political reversal sets off no more alarm for the markets.”


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